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[KNM] 23 Aug 11: KNM DIRT CHEAP @ 1.44

Bought 1/2 a mil $ today @ 1.44.
KLCI has formed a double bottom @ 1474, next stop 1530.
Overseas mkts making U turn.
Budget on 07 Oct 2011.
Traditional run-up to budget day is just 6 weeks away.
Can make 30 to 60 cents easy in 6 weeks !!!
Those with bullets to shoot, shoot now !!!!!!!!!!!
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Good luck. I don't think it will go up so much, in fact, I'd wager it'll go down somemore. But since you can afford half a million in stocks, should not be problem for you. May the force be with you then.
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Be safe. Be vigilant. Good luck!
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Get out from this share... Its nor really reliable anymore...
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I don't know whether current price is cheap.
But, based on KNM's historical data their fair value shouldn't more than RM1.00. Only it drop below RM1.00 i will consider to buy some if not there are plenty of stocks better than KNM.
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Historical low was at the height of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis in March 2009. The price then was 0.32, before share consolidation 4 into 1. This means the price then was 0.32 x 4 = 1.32. Today's close at 1.40 is just 8 cents above this historical low. I may not get the bottom, but I believe I get in at a low price band. Felt it was cheap at 2.00. Went in once at that level and cut loss with a few cents loss. Was patient at 1.75, but at 1.44 I lost my patience and went in. Noticed in the announcement that its CEO added position at 1.80++ some time back. Will hold this one for pre-budget market strength. Hopefully can sell somewhere in between 1.75 to 2.00.
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Take heed that Maybank Investment has made a sell call on KNM and downgraded the target price to RM1.19 from RM1.48. 1H results were a letdown, prompting us to cut 2011-13 earnings by up to 64%
p.a.. While KNM delivered on topline, bottomline was a disappointment, felled by cost overruns and high operating expenses. While the share price has underperformed by 48% YTD, we expect performance to be further suppressed. There is no sign of an operating recovery and declining margins is a concern. Further, valuations are expensive now.
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looks like heading to 1.00??
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This is a traditional sign of a bottom; when people are scared and thinking it would go down to the abyss. Don't lose perspective - 1.75 to 1.85 was cheap. now at 1.35 to 1.45 is super dirt cheap.
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Admire your confidence, but sadly misplaced in this case. But anyhow, you're the one with half a million to burn. I'm definitely not shooting bullets any time soon at this one. KNM like other O&G players will only move when they get lucrative contracts, announce huge profits or get M&A. The last 2 is highly unlikely to have, so good luck with the 1st catalyst.
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Hopefully you've sold it off by now. With the announcement of the massive loss, even RM1.00 would not be 'super dirt cheap'.
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His last post :

"1)2)3) Wait & see. Who's right, who's wrong These are obvious bull markers for seasoned players.

KNM - i'm not yet proven wrong. 1.30++ is still within cheap buying band of 1.44."

he should be suffering about 22% loss from 1.44 ..and he said he bought half a million worth of it.. How "seasoned" can that be?
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the biggest lesson i had learned in my 18 yrs of trading. Eliminate Ego. never trade with ego, never trade to prove to anyone.
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I wouldn't say that knm is a strong fundamental company.. the value is not there.. but if u are a speculator.. just watch out.. there may be some technical rebound for it.. Not all share price reflect solely on fundamental...=)
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Actually, KNM's performance reminds me of Scomi..their profits were falling, and when it suddenly announced a massive quarterly loss, the price caved in. Since then, it has been languishing at penny stock price. Thus, I see something similar happening here. There may be a slight technical rebounds here and there for KNM, but the medium-term horizon is dire.

Anyway, Xenon did add "Be prepared to cut loss". He probably already did that, albeit in a quiet manner :D
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YES, I CUT AT 1.35 MID OCT, BUT ONLY AFTER IT DIPPED TO 1.13. EUROZONE CRISIS HAD CAUSED THE WORLD MARKETS TO DIP BEYOND EXPECTATION IN SEP, CAUSING KNM TO DROP TO 1.13. CAME OCT, IT WAS A STRONG BEAR MARKET RALLY. THIS WAS THE TIME I DECIDED TO CUT LOSS. TODAY, THAT 1.13 WAS VISITED AGAIN BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS BROKEN WHEN IT CLOSED AT 1.12. THIS TIME KNM'S HUGE QUARTERLY LOSS DID THE DAMAGE. [ALLOW ME TO BRAG: STRIKED JACKPOT - BOUGHT HARVEST 5,000 LOTS AT 0.26 AND SOLD AT 2.03, MADE RM870K]
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OK, sure, we believe you :)
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sienz.......
i strike btoto 40million last few months. zzzzzz
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Wah congrats Simon! :D
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INVESTORS bought when KNM dropped with high volume from 2.40 to 2.00, and still holding. SPECULATORS cut losses at 1.80-1.90. SPECULATORS are better off than INVESTORS.
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Not all Investors are Buy and Hold and Not all Speculators cuts losses.
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thanks for the clarification.


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investors= if they make money, they sell to take little profit, then tell ppls they are trader.

speculators= if they make a trade and losses money, they paid up the stock, refuse to cut losses, and tell ppls they are in this for longterm, if go lower they will buy more bla bla.

so, since human are all self-deluded, why bother they are investors or speculator?
to me, everyone is speculator in everything in life, just that some r lousy so they call themselve investor, just like everyman is a farker everywoman wan to be fark and nobody wants to admit this realities.
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Another lesson - not all 'goreng' can be successful. It all depends on general market sentiment at any given day locally and worldwide, the news flows and their timing, and reception of other players. This is why you see during active days that all top 30 active counters are moving but only 3 or 4 are actually move up but the rest fall back down. Stockists, market makers, manipulators or by what other name you want to call them, always test the water first when they goreng. When the sparks fly, then you'd have a rally. If the reception is not good, then they would back out and clear their holdings. The same is true to the downside during a sell down.
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Seasoned players would tell you that Eurozone Debt Crisis has changed the game to the downside for all stock markets worldwide.
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check the dictionary -- catching a falling knife...
cheap can go cheaper, expensive can go more expensive.
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Shouldn't take heed from these analysts as their target prices differ greatly between one another. TA on 23/8 put a target price at 2.53, OSK 2.20, ECM Libra 2.25, HWANGDBS 1.35 & RHB 0.93. What is for sure is that it is now in a grossly oversold zone with RSI at below 30 and fast MACD is about to cross slow MACD.
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xenon u stil don wan to wake up ah?

bottom of what? mkt keep sinking since u called double bottom at 1474 level...
now 1450 onli wor...
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It's his money and his call. We can only weigh in with our opinion, and definitely not with our money. Let's just sit tight and watch how it unfolds.
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KNM can buy at RM 1.28 and hope to sell at RM 1.35?
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Many ppl lost faith in KNM share d.. It may go down to 1.20....
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It could have a slight rebound...
But not worth taking the risk
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Expect trend reversal to take place next week. Close Fri = 1.33. Previous day close = 1.37.
Expect it to close > 1.37 in the next trading day. Then you'll have a trend reversal, not merely a slight rebound. We'll see.
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For those with longer term horizon, one big transformation not really noticed by many is that KNM is now becoming an EPC contractor plus maintenance & operation operator of oil n gas facilities. This is a super mega shift from only an equipment fabricator. Those in the oil n gas business may realise this, but no so the general public. Warren Buffet would realise this as well. Ignore market noises, but capture the big moves over time !!!
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Any news of KNM eyeing / obtaining an EPC contract...?
Have they got the force/ resource to be a strong EPC contractor...?
If you can prove them...then I will srongly suppport you , as I am in the oil and gas .
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google for multi-billion $ MOU JV with Zecon for Johore project. Definitive agreement in 3 months. Resource can be acquired in oil n gas as many are freelancing.
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Losing faith is one of the few signs that the price is bottoming out. When u expect it to go lower, it will stop going lower. Been there, done that many times over.
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Don't set target price when to sell but set the time - 3 days before unveilling of budget 2012 on 07th Oct. No contra play. Contra is gambling - either u make or lose in 4 days. All gamblers lose money; undisputed fact.
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Agree that double bottom set-up has been violated, but we are in a "cheap environment". There are 3 bull markers ahead where the environment will get expensive (or overbought):
1. Pre-budget, leading towards 07/10 - 6 weeks
2. Pre-election, expected during school holidays Nov/Dec - 3 or 4 months
3. Pre-CNY, leading towards 23/1 - 5 months
All the buyers now (buy N hold type) will make money. Believe me..
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dont mean to pour cold water on you.
1) 2) 3) u just mentioned doesnt resuscitate a sick dying stock from worsening.

bear in mind it is not an index-linked stock.
pls also stop asking ppls to believe u. u have to believe in yourself, and since u had proven wrong in this case, wrong in hwgb case and few others. also as i recalled u shout for target ard 1.20 when it was 70c and on the way down. honestly i was the victim of your great unjustify confidence.
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1)2)3) Wait & see. Who's right, who's wrong. These are obvious bull markers for seasoned players.

KNM - i'm not yet proven wrong. 1.30++ is still within cheap buying band of 1.44.

Dance to the rythm in investing. Be prepared to cut loss. Below is my last posting on hwgb. Don't twist the fact as you wish. I recall asking people to buy at 0.55 (on the way down). Obviously, technical rebound took it to 0.76. Now at 0.30 is another episode alltogether (European debt crisis coupled with tumbling Dow):

TOLD YOU SO.
Price now at 0.72.
Profit = 0.72-0.55 = 0.17
0.17/0.55 x 100% = 30%
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Xenon u r a hopeless liar. u should stop making recommendation here or anywhere else. u r a flop!

Wave 1 completed. Consolidation of wave 1 almost complete as well. Wave 2 will break the peak of Wave 1 at RM1.00. Target peak of Wave 2 is RM1.40. BUY HWGB !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6-Mar-2011 11:50 PM
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No need to resort to such indignified language. One thing you should learn is trading in stock market is a calculated guess, based on combination of past trends and company fundamentals. Once you are wrong, take action to cut your losses. This is not flip flop. It is trading 101. If you are too rigid and keep on holding stocks when the market moves against you, you could be holding stocks with huge paper losses for ages. Cut loss and preserve the cash for some other opportunities. Another thing that you should learn is our market is flooded with stockists. Make a calculated guess when these stockists are accumulating which counters, when they are about to push up the price, when they actually are pushing or 'goreng', when they are distributing their holdings, if they want to push up for 2nd round of play, and when they have released all their holdings. This way you'd know what to buy, when to buy, when to sell and when to cut loss. Look at price levels, volume actions and overall local & overseas market sentiment for tell tale signs. You've got to be in the market for more than a decade, gone thru a few bull & bear markets, got fingers burnt a couple of times, before you could master this FAST PACE GAME. The fact of the matter is 8 out of 10 traders would ultimately lose money in stock markets worldwide, as 'the house always wins'. Why they keep coming back ? Because of the adrenalin rush and the hope of winning big, and he hope of striking the like of Harvest Court or Mbfhldg-WA. Warren Buffet just said 2 wks ago "If you think you can make big money buy jumping in and out of stocks, you are fooling yourselves". But if you are good enough to form the 2 out 10 traders who make money in the fast game of stock trading, then you are better than Warren Buffet !!
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for your records, i doubt that u have the qualification to teach anybody anything. stop misleading readers with your nonsense. its a waste of time reading your nonsense and counter productive and full of flaws. thanks and stay away please. pls do not reply to me anymore. i have no time for you.
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Oo.. so are u better than warren buffett?.. Anyway, in investing always learn from ur mistakes.. ppl recommend.. For instance, now i strongly recommend thplant and kmloong.. what u want to know i can tell u but i cant promise u anything.. further analyse will depend on urself.. i am just giving an opinion to share with u guys... Dont need to fight over one small issue.. relax.. Continue and learn from mistake..=)
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are u talking to me? if no why u reply to me?
warren buffet failed in trading stock thats why he didnt trade.

never use warren buffet as a role model, he is a failed trader, he doesnt know anything abt trading world.

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daniel is refering to xenon post about forming a 2/10 trader then be better than warren.
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This page is getting too long now. Time to stop. My parting words... he is not my match...I am too big for him. Obvious for all to see. You know I could write a book about trading.

Good bye all, take care.
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should we call ambulance for u?? obviously u r very sick.

really goodbye and pls go elsewhere for your garbage and Big Ego.
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very obvious u r insane.

all u said u have bought. (and shout for everyone to believe u and follow u) turn out losing Big Money.
those that u never said u have bought, (and therefore never shout and ask ppls to follow believe u)b>> turn out Big Winner. but u then have the cheek to brag that u have make million from those u never said u have bought !!



hahaha. if that is not insanity what is? go write a book about how u failed in trading. :>
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if dont get out now, wait for 50c.....
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Another basic lesson to learn - don't think where the price will go. The market will tell you how low it can go. You can never gauge the buying supports ahead of time.
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u r the fool that has been telling ppls where the prices would go! are u from tanjong rambutan???
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Hi You are sohsoh, how can knm down to rm 1.00
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Famous last words @_@
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Hi khjason sorhai.
now is 97c only, 3c below rm 1.00
u call me sohsoh very cute.
i call u sorhai can or not?
big big sorhai. :)
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Yes. Really drop below 1.00 now.
IS it time to buy now? i afraid not. As we can't see the competitive edge of this company.
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While traders argue what shares are cheap, what are not, the government and cronies get all FAKE FREE SHARES.
https://sites.google.com/site/1moneysia/
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MUIIND :)
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muiind can make big bucks, if you can hold onto it for sometime. i did make a small killing out of it last year.
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Contra not say very bad... got raya gift from public even though I don't celebrate raya XD
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Hmm... time to push MBSB? 1.6
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Maybe it should be better to go in at 1.4 to 1.44...
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True though... but have make to shares perform
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The warrant price is "locked" :)
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KNM 1.33
they u turn down?
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I wonder anyone would like to push mbsb-wa
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At a downtrend.. You may want to avoid warrant...
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Yep... but dunno is a down trend or not.
I don't think ppl sell it either, I can't even buy enough
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Ah.. my warrant got 5% already
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EPF members will push up
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Xenon, hope u learned the lessons.... be humble and keep learning.
good luck in your future trade!
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Long gone are the days when buying stocks were based on fundamentals and holding them for long term to make 30, 40% gain over a few years. Many worldwide recognise this - that being trapped in a fundamentally good stock during market downturn would mean losing many opportunities to make money. As markets are not efficient, many fundamentally good stocks do not perform as theoretically as they should. Many worldwide now realised that fast pace trading is the way to go. Go in many times and place a tight stop at 5%. Should you miss this stop, then get out on technical rebound. Sometimes you make sometimes you loose. When you strike the one on the move, then place a trailing stop, i.e. don't sell until the price reverses by 5% of previous day's closing price. This is how I made $870,000 on Harvest with $130,000 purchase, and this profit has covered my 10 cents losses on KNM many many times over!
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oo..remember lucky wont always be there..learn from mistake ba:}
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