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[OTHERS] Forex Comex Technical & Fundamental Updates

Dollar sentiment shift as it slips on tariff escalation


After more than a week of anticipation, Donald Trump has finally pulled the trigger on the next phase of trade tariffs on Chinese imports. A 10% tariff on $200bn worth of imports from China will come into force on Monday, whilst this 10% will rise to 25% on 1st January. Trump also talked about moving to “phase 3” (putting tariffs on the remaining $267bn of Chinese imports) is China were to retaliate. Sentiment on equity markets has been hit, but reaction elsewhere, in forex and bond markets is intriguing, especially for the dollar.
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Japanese yen at a two-month low as markets ponder US tariffs

1. The yen weakened to near two-month lows against the dollar as financial markets took fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods in their stride.

2. China and the U.S. plunged deeper into a trade war after President Donald Trump levied tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which drew quick retaliatory duties from Beijing on about $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

3. U.S. bond yields shot up as tariffs added to concerns about higher U.S. inflation, helping to boost the dollar against the yen.
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NZD/USD Surges After Upbeat 2Q GDP, Eyes RBNZ and Trade Wars

*New Zealand Dollar boosted by better-than-expected second quarter GDP
*Despite NZD’s downside momentum, RBNZ rate cut bets may be cooled
*RBNZ OCR decision, US-China trade war, and emerging markets next

The New Zealand Dollar gained against its US counterpart as local economic data crossed the wires early into Thursday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Second quarter year-over-year GDP clocked in at 2.8%, up from economists’ forecasts of 2.5% and the prior 2.7%. The quarterly growth measure similarly exceeded expectations, at 1.0%, compared to the estimate of 0.8% and the previous 0.5%. Despite the upbeat GDP data helping the Kiwi’s recent rally, NZD/USD has remained in a downtrend channel since April of this year. Traders should wait for confirmation of upside momentum above the June 2018 resistance trend line, before considering next moves.
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The dollar struggled near 2-1/2 month lows, while the yen also sagged on Friday on reduced safe haven demand amid a switch in investors' view that the Sino-U.S. trade conflict would not lead to an immediate global shock.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood little changed at 93.908 after touching 93.829 overnight, its lowest since July 9.

The index has fallen more than 1 percent this week, with investor flows being diverted from the greenback to other currencies including emerging market ones amid an ebb in U.S.-China trade war concerns.


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Yen Inches Up as China Cancels Trade Talks, Dollar Also Gains

The Japanese yen edged up on Monday as China cancelled its planned trade talks with the U.S. The dollar also gained following the news.

The USD/JPY pair was down 0.01% to 112.56 by 11:50PM ET (03:50 GMT). The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up 0.06% to 93.84.

The Australian dollar traded 0.34% lower to 0.7269 against the dollar after the news.
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Forex today: all eyes on the upcoming US Fed rate hike

In forex today, markets started to wind up ahead of Wednesday's US Fed rate call, coming in for a landing at 18:00 GMT, and markets are broadly expecting a 0.25% rate hike.

Broader markets remain quiet in the run-up to the US Fed action, though a kick in New Zealand's business confidence reading early in Wednesday's trading saw some support for the Antipodeans.

The EUR/USD is trading flatly near 1.1760 ahead of Monday's Fed action, and with the current path of Fed rate hikes already fairly priced into the EUR/USD, it's unlikely that today's upcoming rate hike will see much downside action for the major pair.
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US dollar reaching towards highs again

The US dollar has reached towards the vital ¥113 level again during the day in a parabolic move. This shows just how strong the greenback is and of course how much the interest rate differential is starting to come into play.

The US dollar has gone parabolic against the Japanese yen in trading on Thursday, breaking above the ¥113 level. By doing so, the market looks ready to go much higher, and I think that we will probably go looking towards the ¥114.50 level given enough time. At this point, I believe that short-term pullbacks continue to be the way to go for buying opportunities, and I don’t have any interest in shorting this pair. I don’t know that we can break out above this pair in the short term, but longer-term it seems a bit like a foregone conclusion. It is because of this that I look at short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities but I would only piecemeal the position in.
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Canadian dollar rises on NAFTA hopes, yen hits 10-1/2-month low

The Canadian dollar rose to a four-month high at 1.2837 per U.S. dollar before giving up some gains. It last traded about 0.4 percent higher at $1.2852.

The yen weakened to 113.85 per dollar, reaching its lowest since the middle of November last year before giving up some gains.

The yen last traded 0.05 percent higher at 113.77 yen.

The euro traded flat with worries about a rise in Italy's deficit weighing on the single currency after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expected budget deficit target.

The euro last changed hands at $1.1610, not far off a more than two-week low of $1.1569 touched on Friday.
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Forex - Dollar, Yen Falls as Italy Revises Budget Plans

The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen fell on Wednesday on reports that the Italy government is aiming to cut its budget deficit to 2% of GDO in 2021. The government forecasted a deficit of 2.4% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020.

The Euro gained 0.3% against the dollar following the news.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading at 94.98 by 12:30AM ET (04:30 GMT), down 0.2%.

The Japanese yen on the other hand also slid as the USD/JPY pair inched up 0.01% to 113.68.
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FOREX-Dollar up in Asia as China loosens policy, yuan slips

* Yuan fixed at 6.8957, lowest since May last year

The dollar edged higher on Monday as China followed an easing in domestic policy by allowing its yuan to fall, though the drop was not as sharp as some had feared.

The fix left the dollar trading at 6.9039 in the spot market CNH= , but off an early top of 6.9157.

Any drop in the yuan tends to undermine other emerging currencies as they need to depreciate to keep exports competitive. The Indonesian rupiah IDR= , for instance, slid to its lowest in over two decades on Monday.

Those flows in turn support the safe-haven yen and the dollar, particularly when U.S. yields are rising.
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