MULPHA above $0.52 by 29-Jun-2012

  • target price: $0.52 ( 26.83 % in 155 days)
  • price when predicted: $0.41
  • current price: $2.57
  • 2213 days pass target date.
Mulpha has been rolling on the average floor price of 0.40 for the last 2 1/2 years. The main reason for this doldrums is the persistent and continuous selling of Mulpha shares by Goldman Sachs. The Hedge Fund bought a substantial stake of 165 million shares from the open market in Dec 2010. For some unknown reasons the Fund began to sell down from January 2011. by October 2011, the outstanding stock was 118 million shares. Probably by June, the Fund would have sold everything. Mulpha price would gradually edge up over next few months as the selling tapers off
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Mulpha pierced through the all-important 200MA line today touching intra-day high of 0.455; that is very very positive. However, the price needs to move another 10% to confirm the uptrend or else it is another dead cat bounce
Mulpha is a good proxy play of Iskandar Development Region in Johor Bahru. It owns Leisure Farm- a high-end low-density property development within the super prime area of Nusajaya New Township. The development is only 11 km or 15 minutes drive away from the Singapore Immigration Check point via Second Link.

With the Singapore Government restricting foreign property ownership on the island, through the imposition of heavy stamp duty, it is highly probable the excess foreign demand would be diverted to Johor Bahru. Leisure Farm is one of the major beneficiaries.

Leisure Farm has a total area of 1,371 acres of free hold land. Probably close to 650 acres of land are left for development. With the current market price of development land hovering around RM30 psf, the total market value could easily fetch RM850 million.
Mulpha has just sold a HK company for around RM110 million raking in a tidy net profit of RM57 million. Not a big deal but will increase the cash position quite a bit.

Despite corrections in the last few days, Mulpha chart still looks positive with price staying above 200MA. 20MA will soon cross 200MA line, that is a mini golden cross which indicates near term bullishness
zzzzz stock.

like old vw....
Mulpha is moving slowly but steadily. The downside risk is minimal as the stock has fairly solid asset backing of 1.24 per share. I think one can easily make a profit of 50% within this year. However, much patience is required.

The company has been buying back shares for the last one year. They bought back 1.89 million shares within last 2 days. Goldman Sachs' holding is dwindling and would dry up completely soon.
ever wonder why GS exiting from Mulpha? despite such a good asset backing..
Mulpha is a high beta stock holding a substantial stake in FKP Australia (retirement home developer and provider). There was rumour that FKP was the subject of hostile take-over in 2010. Being a hedge fund, Goldman Sachs was trying to capitalise on the rumour and bought into Mulpha. Before they could profit anything, GS ran into financial difficulties as a result of Euro crisis and Mulpha was not interested in selling FKP. GS sold assets in many countries to raise cash.

At the time of GS purchase, a substantial shareholder, Honest Opportunity was selling. The table was turned around when GS was selling aggressively- Honest Opportunity was buying by the millions of shares at very low price of between 0.37 to 0.40. GS lost their pants! Hedge funds are big time speculators, sometimes they win and sometimes they lose and they are not bothered.
good story.

GS also owns Berjaya, Myeg.... and they didnt sell down to raise cash?

GS normally exit an investment when they sense corporate governance issues. they have UNLIMITED cash to invest in any good prospect. yes, UNLIMITED.
everytime the Fed pump priming, all the monies goes to GS...
Mulpha has decisively broken through the 200MA line and the 20MA is touching and about to cross 200MA line. Quite obvious, Mulpha is embarking on a short to medium term uptrend climb. In such situation, Elliot Wave Principle is probably the best approach to predict Mulpha's future move (1st Up, 2nd Down, 3rd Up, 4th Down, 5th Up).

Mulpha has completed the 1st wave by moving from 0.38 to 0.50. Currently it is moving downward on its 2nd wave from 0.50 to 0.46 approximately. 3rd wave is about to break out in a few weeks' time, probably moving upward from 0.46 to 0.56 region. can 3rd wave go up to 56 only, if there is really a 3rd wave in this stock, it will hit 68c. if not it will just hang around at 50+- 2c-3cents until the cows come home.
I think the downward 2nd wave has completed by bottoming out at 0.42 last Thursday. Looks like 3rd wave is beginning to unfold today by moving to intra-day high of 0.44 in the afternoon. Let's watch whether 3rd wave can be confirmed next week.
Mulpha is resting precariously on the 200MA line, uncertain of which direction it would go. It all depends on the underlying market forces of Bursa Malaysia. If bullish sentiment prevails over bearish mood, there is a chance Mulpha may bounce off from the 200MA line and begin is attempt of the 3rd wave march. However, if Mulpha breaks below its 200MA line at 42 sen and further below its 50MA at 41 sen, then the 5-wave theory will not hold any more. It will be back to square one - hibernation.

There is a glimmer of hope for Mulpha - the company is fairly active in supporting the price by buying back shares, especially in bear market. A cautious reminder here: Golden Sachs still holds some Mulpha shares and they are probably still selling.
Mulpha is holding quite well at around 42 sen. However, the price is basically supported by the company's share buy-backs. It would need more positive market sentiments for Mulpha price to be self-sustaining or self-propelling.
i thought JCY after "broke the all important support of 1.10 would go to 80c, or 90c." kindly update for us. what happen now? do u have new story to explain that or u know of any conspiracy between big fund and brokerage firms ?
i heard foreign investors are accumulating. another quarter of sterling performance in the loom. and today it has started moving up after a month of correction.
JCY managed to cling on to the support line of 1.10 by the skin of the teeth dropping to as low as 1.07. Judging from this morning's price of 1.16, it seems to be holding on quite well. I am not defending my projections, these are all guess-timates and I adjust accordingly as new scenarios develop. Please don't take my words but do your own estimates.

CIMB was the promoter and lead manager of the JCY listing. They know the company as well as the controlling shareholder well. CIMB (not me)seems to be very positive about the earnings of the coming few quarters of JCY.

OSK made two rounds out of JCY's weakness through 2 batches of CW but it gave back practically everything in the last batch of CW. My personal observation (no conspiracy theory please)is that CIMB will be the main mover for the next rally.
lets see. the 1.10 level is very strong, it drift below it to shake off weak holder. what do u think?
Definitely lots of weak holders have already dumped their shares. It's still early to tell whether today's rise is temporary technical rebound or beginning of up trend. Anyway, because of strong earning possibilities, I would not be perturbed even if the price goes down to 80 to 90 sen next few weeks.

If CIMB's view of JCY earning can be trusted (sometimes they paint rosy pictures for their own gain), I don't believe the overhanging head and shoulder would take its course. My feeling is that 1.10 would probably hold.

Again, what have been said are all opinions and personal judgments. Anything can happen in the stock market. We are actually playing the game of shooting the moving target.
Hi All,

U never know where the highest up or lowest down of a counter in the market. The best thing to do flow with it.
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