PANAMY above $18.00 by 31-May-2010

  • target price: $18.00 ( 6.51 % in 27 days)
  • price when predicted: $16.90
  • current price: $38.92
  • 2702 days pass target date.
current price ~ RM16.90
PE ~ based on annualised 9mths YTD 31.3.10 on an eps of RM0.81 is 15.6X !
DY ~ assume 80% payout on annualised eps of RM1.08 ; is approx 3.8% (NETT of tax !)

Balance sheet is healthy, debt-free with surplus cash of RM470mil.
Taking industry average PE of 17X, price potential is RM18.36, DY is approx 3.5% !
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I Think So

Not Likely

Comments

UPDATE:
TA indicates bullish sentiments SMA with its accumulation distribution line & MACD signaling a bullish divergence since end-March and buying opportunities in money flow index. Current price seems to be hugging its lower half of its narrow bollinger band indicating strong support, with possible price breakout extention beyond upper band.

Noted substantial shareholders increasing their shareholding steadily Apr & May :

Aberdeen Assets :
@ Jan 2010 - 4,945,500 shares (8.14%)
@ May 2010 - 5,313,300 shares (8.75%)
Credit Suisse :
@ Jan 2010 - 3,907,700 shares (6.43%)
@ May 2010 - 4,31`7,900 shares (7.11%)
EPF :
@ Jan 2010 - 3,183,146 shares (5.24%)
@ May 2010 - 3,590,846 shares (5.91%)
New boss Jeff Lee in Panasonic have been indicating that their sales growth was good and Panasonic holds strong market shares for many products like air conditioners at 39.5%, microwave ovens 41.9%, private branch exchange (PBX) phone systems 56% and VIERA plasma/led/lcd TV at 59%. He was positive of the outlook for the sector this year, as the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth had returned to positive territory in 4Q09 and that had restored confidence in the industry. "Sales momentum will pick up eventually. With the coming World Cup (this year), the momentum would be sustained," he said, adding that a marketing strategy corresponding to the world's biggest soccer event was in the pipeline.
my guesstimate:

Q4 revenue expected to exceed rm200mil; pat exceed rm25mil.
YTD Rev ~ rm800mil ; PAT ~ rm75mil.

EPS ~ rm1.20 ie. @ RM16.60, PE = 13.8X !!

Dividend, assume maintain same as previous year, ie. RM1.05, already paid RM0.15, expect final dividend to be declared RM0.90 (nett of tax = rm0.675)
...DY (on RM0.675 t0 be paid) ~ 4.07% (after tax !!) ; gross RM1.05 … DY ~ 6.3%

@ price target RM18.00, PE = 15X, DY (on RM0.675) = 3.75% !! gross RM1.05… DY ~ 5.8%

Expect nothing but positive news and a handsome dividend payout !!

cheers.
its a shame that there does exists weak shareholders who probably bought it on borrowed funds or lack insights... guess its good that this corretions gets rid of all those weak shareholders..

Panamy declared a dividend of RM1.05 gross and the stock retracks 26c ???

Panamy is one of the very few companies that declare generous dividends and still have cash horde of approx RM450mil, steady NTA below industry PE and a decent DY !!
I'll accumulate further on this stock at least until end-Sept 2010 !!

cheers
Update...

Sorry.. but looks like the price target is unlikely to be hit by 31.05.2010 !
likely to be by 31 August 2010 !
Market is so jittery and shaky that good corporate earnings/dividends is useless to gain shareholders confidence.

substantial sharholders continue to increase their shareholdings :
Aberdeen - 5,592,900 shares (9.21%)
Credit Suisse - 4,439,900 shares (7.31%)

RM18.00 by 31.08.2010.
Panamy today hit a high RM18.10 on bullish signals surpassing its upper Bollinger Band and it looks like Panamy is "walking up the band". Its MACD line @ 0.191 just went above its signal line 0.145 indicating buy signals.

Fundamentally, Panamy is a solid profit making company with strong reserves and cash holding. I believe its Q1 results are going to very encouraging given the positive business environment and World Cup hoo-hah for its audio-video products such as HD TV's.

Its PE of 15X or 16X is at acceptable level and its DY is gross 5.5% which is still higher than most counters.

I'm setting a new target of RM19.00 for Panamy by 30 September 2010.
Panamy today hit a high RM19.00 in thin trade.

Moving average still shows uptrend. Its MACD line @ 0.421 is just above its signal line 0.378 and its histogram looks flatish indicating consolidation at this level. RSI indicates overbought position, however, MFI confirms Panamy price increase indicating continued holding long position of the share.

This is probably due to the fact that Panamy declared a dividend of RM1.05 gross which goes ex 20/09 + based on filing with Bursa @ 21/07, substantial sharholders continue to increase their shareholdings :
Aberdeen - 5,794,000 shares (9.54%)
Credit Suisse - 4,501,600 shares (7.41%)

Panamy probably is expected to release a better than expected Q1 result in August 2010.

Anyone care to comment ??
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