ramsyll was right about

TSH above $2.60 by 31-Dec-2012

  • target price: $2.60 ( 9.24 % in 291 days)
  • price when predicted: $2.38
  • current price: $1.65
  • 1751 days pass target date.
  • Exceeded $2.60 on 13-Apr-2012
  • Highest Price $2.87 on 11-Jul-2012
TSH FYE 2011 results was sterling with net profit of RM121million, EPS=RM0.15 and at a trading price of RM2.20, its PE is approx 14X. It’s a fair price in the industry. However, imho, TSH plantations peak have plenty more years to go, with still more than 50% unplanted land.. good yield for its wakubu variant and should be recording record profits every year…
Too bad I waited too long and bought it @ RM2.30 yesterday, but I’m in it for the long term, so I’m buying further. I must let you guys know that my overall entry cost on TSH is still very low, prior to its bonus issue.
2012 my guesstimate is approx RM160mil (nett profit after tax), weighted average shares in issue 819.5mil, EPS=RM0.195; on a PE=14X ~ TP RM2.73.

cheers.
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Comments

Hi Mr Ramsyll,

May I know whether your prediction for this stock can manage to weather the coming election.

Thanks.
hmmm... i can't guarantee it but from the shareholding lists and its board composition, it doesn't seem to be politically connected nor does it depend on the political scenario's for its biz (except imho, for Indonesia). Hence, yes, imho, i think TSH can manage to weather the coming election.
However, having said that, all stocks irrespective of its "connectivity" or not will always be subjected to "market forces" in turbulent times when the severe political changes happen due to fear factor. There will always be a seller whoo fears such events and there will always be a buyer who takes advantage of such opportunities. Therefore, you have to look at it based on your own risk appetite.
Like I said, I'm into this stock for the long term and since my entry cost is much cheaper, I have a much lower cut-loss price tolerance to weather "temporary" turbulent times. In fact, I would also look at it as another buying opportunity.
cheers.
Thanks Mr Ramsyll for your opinion.

Btw I got one more question to you, regarding the KLCI, is it this KLCI now is a weak market?

This is my first time I trade shares eventhough I already read a lot of books. I buy at 2.45 and now its already lose within 5 percent.

My opinion for this stock is,
1.it's under strong hand
2.CPO prices already increased to 3400 and will turn it into profit to the company. This means I need to wait within 3 month or longer to reap the higher prices.

Thanks.
Seriously, I don't know with constant manipulation in the last 15 mins trading. However, I note that the growth momentum of the economy is most likely to moderate due to the external weak conditions, europe debt problems.
Don't look at it as a "loss" in entirety if you have holding power, especially if you believe stock do have a strong future capital appreciation potential.
cheers.
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