ramsyll was right about

PADINI above $1.60 by 31-Aug-2012

  • target price: $1.60 ( 14.29 % in 161 days)
  • price when predicted: $1.40
  • current price: $4.77
  • 2145 days pass target date.
  • Exceeded $1.60 on 23-Apr-2012
  • Highest Price $2.37 on 16-Aug-2012
Keep an eye on this stock. Not in many analyst radar's but imho, it will soon attract attention. Why? Because Padini is showing great growth potential...
FYE 2011:
EPS=RM0.114 / DPS=RM0.04 / NTA=RM0.43
Market price @ RM1.40 ; PE=12.2X
EPS=RM0.844 /DPS=RM0.02 / NTA=RM0.50
and thats just for 1/2 year.
Management comment on prospects:
While the rest of the year would remain challenging, seeing how the prospects for recovery in the US and the Eurozone continue to remain uncertain, the Group is still confident of further growth as it continues to expand the size of its distribution network and to improve on its product offerings.
Pretty bullish I'd say.
OK then, lets crack some numbers;
Lets annualize it, that means profit is RM111mil, discount that say by 20%, 20121 profit=RM88mil. that means EPS=RM0.134. Growth=17% (after discount) 47% gross.
Based on its current trading PE12.2X, TP=RM1.63, if DPS=RM0.06, DY=3.75%.
However if based on its annualised profit say RM100mil, EPS=RM0.152 with PE12.2x, TP=RM1.85.

Keep an eye on TA chart for buy signal when MACD crossover takes place. Seems to have support level @ RM1.30.


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Actually.. a few analysts e.g. Maybank Investment have started coverage of PADINI since many weeks back, which may have also helped the stock to climb up a lot. Yes, this counter has potential to grow further. MIB has a buy target price of RM1.70.

Anyway, an extract from Maybank Investment's buy call on Padini:

Joining the billion-ringgit club. India's on-again, off-again cotton export ban is a small hiccup which has not affected Padini. We maintain our Buy call and TP of RM1.70 based on 12x CY12 PER. The group has evolved into a stock with a market cap of over RM1b compared to just RM690m when we initiated coverage in July 2011. The 12-month average daily trading volume has also improved to 1.2m shares vs. just 0.7m in July 2011. Trading at 11.2x calendarised 2012 earnings, we expect its valuation gap vis--vis peers to continue narrowing.
Yesterday night a friend asked my opinion on this stock but i had no idea at all since it was never in my stock-watch list. Anyway, googled it and from what i saw was only OSK & Hwangdbs + few blogs (incl. Tradesignum). My assessment is only based on Bursa announcement. Good to know that analyst are also covering it and positive views also.
What actually attracted me to PADINI is its PEG (PE Growth) = PE/EPS growth (12.2/33.3) = 0.366 (Anything lower than 1 shows potential price movement upwards). OK perhaps EPS growth is a bit optimistic but on a discounted basis, EPS growth is still 17.5%.
Simple maths, PEG=1 means PE=17.5, hence TP=17.5xRM0.134=RM2.30.
A RM0.90 gain on RM1.40 investment = 64% return (very nice....) as usual, risks are always attached, hence judge the prediction based on your own judgement & risk appetite.

hmmm... interesting... musufasa on 09/03 predicted that Padini will be RM2.30 by Sept 2012.
Bro... want to tell us how you came to that figure ?
I've profited from this stock thrice and earned dividends of 2 sen thrice. I bought it at 1.15 which was at the high at the time. My third sale was at 1.40 on Thursday, after having delayed it even when the the first bearish sign appeared on 13.03 with a big black candle. Chartwise, Padini is moving downwards and is likely to remain bearish although some bulls appeared yesterday to support it at 1.40 and 1.41. But volume at 1.56m is low. I may be wrong; but it looks to me that Padini is in for a long fall, before finding support at 1.10 perhaps. Fundamentally it is a good stock with very good earning potentials. I will of course buy it gain once its chart shows an upwards bias. My target price for this stock is 1.80.
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