ARMADA above $4.30 by 31-May-2012

  • target price: $4.30 ( 5.91 % in 31 days)
  • price when predicted: $4.06
  • current price: $0.76
  • 2021 days pass target date.
Fundamentally, nothings changed as far as Armada is concerned. Earnings are all on track. Technically oversold due to major shareholder and a couple of bumiputra investors selling down a stake to private placements. Selling parties still maintain 55% shareholding after stake sale.
TP RM4.80 still intact.
Good opportunity to buy-in.
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I Think So

Not Likely

Comments

below 4.00 today is a cheap sale. got some @ 3.97. :)
good for you RT. Got mine @ RM4.00, no complains. Should be rewarding unless I read this totally wrong ??!!

cheers.
OK lah I'm in also :)

Now waiting for Gamuda to go back up zzz
I believe in Bumi Armada's fundamentals, just like Dialog & TSH.
Ok.. coming to "zzzzz" Gamuda... first, i'm not in it but I'm actually perplexed as to why the market didn't react positively to the news of the MRT tunneling project (RM8.3billion - Gamuda share being RM4.1billion)!
Perhaps the news is "stale" as being perceived to be a foregone conclusion when the whole thing about this MRT project was announced in June 2010. At that time Gamuda was hovering around RM2.80 and since the announcement and approval by the Govt in Dec 2010, the price have moved upwards to RM3.60 - RM3.80 level (present range level too !). cont'd..
Imho, market is awaiting Gamuda's results... Q3 & Q4, ie. FYE July2012, which by my guesstimate is approx RM537mil (EPSRM0.26, current trading of PE13.8X, price approx RM3.60), which is reflective of its current market price. The tunneling work is expected to commence in July 2013, hence FYE July 2013 profit will be based on current on-going projects growth.
However, the "potential" intrinsic value of the shares, simply taking the MRT tunneling award share RM4.1bil, say 8% margin, 4 years work, after tax, and a 10% risk discount, that works out to be RM60mil per year; and thats only for 1 line awarded. There are 2 more lines tunnelling award, guess who will get it... yes.. Gamuda-MMC JV ! Lets assume these 2 lines will give RM60mil profit too.. hence, FYE July 2014 ~ RM657mil, EPS ~ RM0.32, PE13.8X, TP=RM4.50.
Probably, need Gamuda to do road-show to "sell" their projects to the market for some excitement....
patience is the word..
cheers.
Ya, I was quite perplexed when it started to slide after the good news was announced. I suppose, as you said, the price has already factored in the good news. But as Bon Jovi said, keep the faith!

BTW I also spotted Crest Building, looks like another relatively unknown gem. What do you think?
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