ramsyll was right about

DIALOG above $2.00 by 31-Aug-2011

  • target price: $2.00 ( 26.58 % in 271 days)
  • price when predicted: $1.58
  • current price: $2.24
  • 2242 days pass target date.
  • Exceeded $2.00 on 06-Jan-2011
  • Highest Price $2.88 on 02-Jun-2011
Dialog story again. Sold half of my holdings and now I bought back into Dialog @ 1.48/1.50 seeing that it has established a downside resistance @ 1.43.

Dialog is an integrated specialist technical services provider to the oil, gas and petrochemical industry. I predict its results improving from its CTF (Centralised Tankage Facilities) with the full commencement of operation by Langsat Terminal (One) Sdn Bhd in Tanjung Langsat, Johor (Phase 1 & 2) effective April 2010. My rough estimation or guesstimation, CTF contributes approx. 30% of Dialog’s profit.

Its Kertih CTF has a 400,000m3 capacity, and with the Langsat coming onstream, Dialog will have another 400,000m3. Q1 shows PBT RM41mil , hence @ 30% CTF is approx. RM13mil, with other contributing RM28mil.

The Group plans to further expand its logistics (petroleum terminals and supply base) businesses. In addition, the Group is expanding its scope to venture into the provision of upstream oil and gas expertise services.

In October 2010, the State Government of Johor Darul Ta’zim had approved to award DIALOG the exclusivity to developdeveloping an independent deepwater petroleum terminal with harbor port, jetty and other marine facilities with water depth up to 26 meters capable of handling Ultra Large Crude Carriers, Very Large Crude Carriers and other vessels, and with tankage facilities for the handling, storage, processing and distribution of crude oil, petroleum, petrochemicals and chemical products in Tanjung Ayam and Tanjung Kapal, Pengerang in Johor.for a period of 60 years. The technical part of the feasibility study has been completed and concluded that the site is suitable for reclamation and the construction of the proposed terminal. The environmental impact assessment has been submitted for approval and the final investment decision will be made in first quarter of year 2011, after receiving approvals from all relevant authorities.

Pengerang CTF capacity (Phase 1) is 1,400,000m3 and when completed will be 5,000,000m3. The multiplier effect of the Pengerang project is tremendous not only confined to Dialog but to the entire economy.

Hence, once again my rough estimation or guesstimation, the contribution from Pengerang could be at least RM90mil per annum (Phase 1) – RM325mil pa on completion. BIG numbers !

Dialog's also has a proposed RM100mil integrated offshore supply base in Jubail Commercial Port in Saudi Arabia, construction is expected to start next year. The project is expected to start contributing to the group in 2011.

Bottomline, expecting Dialog to report ~ RM200mil profit for the year FYE 30.06.2011, EPS ~ RM0.1015, taking PE of 20X (ie. 20% discount from current 25X), expected price is approx. RM2.03. FYE 30.6.2013 profit ~ RM250mil, EPS ~ RM0.1271, PE 20X, price ~ RM2.54.

Like I said before, start accumulating Dialog. It’s a GIANT in the making.

Cheers.
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