Blog/Website:ramsyll @ tradeSignum
Investment Knowledge: Good
Intrested in: Fundamental analysis


Correct Prediction: 128
Total % Change: 2,054.12 %
Predicted: 198
ramsyll is a member since 03-May-2010.

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Hmmm... with the markets confidence already shaken, it looks like US Govt's Operation Twist sure twisted up the world economy... the investors were anticipating it but the expectations coming out it sure isn't. Instead of giving the market a welcoming confidence, it only heightened further worries about the economy outlook. It seems that the the measures wont make the economy any worse but neither does it makes it any better. The DOW just opened 300pts down and threading further down towards 400pts down, we can expect another bloodshed tomorrow, especially it being Friday. The US Central Bank gave early warning of slower growth but the recent statement "significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets" was the statement that started this sea of red spooking the investing market. Imho, there is a couple of other factors that need to be addressed before this reverse of sea of red is seen, i.e. whether a Greece default will materialise (mid-October), whether China's manufacturing index will show another slowdown, whether Eurozone manufacturing shows slowdown... Until then, even though the Bursa Index and share prices is hovering below the 20, 50 & 200 MA and RSI & Stochastic RSI in oversold position, I suggest sit tight, and start charting the shares which is fundamentally strong and had taken a beating due to this selldown, and prepare your warchest for the opportunity. Me.. I'll be on Dialog, Hiro, MBSB & Panamy. Predictions downward should be not too difficult, take the bluechips held by most foreign funds and mark it downwards 4-5%, should be correct. cheers.
23-Sep-2011 12:13 AM

[OTHERS] Brace yourself .... Japan to sell US Treasuries ???

Read this of AP and I thought I'd share this with you guys.. Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2011 Thinking the unthinkable: Sell U.S. Treasuries The idea that Japan would ever dump the $900 billion it holds in U.S. Treasuries, the second-largest foreign ownership after China, has long been just that — an idea never seriously entertained. The long-standing argument paints a horrific picture of the consequences: The dollar would crash, world markets would be sent into a tailspin and the postwar military and political alliance between the U.S. and Japan would be shaken. But after Washington's credit rating was downgraded for the first time ever earlier this month — from AAA to AA+ by Standard & Poor's — some daring advocates are voicing that taboo idea: Why not sell Treasuries? Those playing devil's advocate aren't Japan's mainstream policymakers by any means. But they aren't totally fringe either. "The holdings translate to ¥1 million per Japanese taking this risk in shouldering U.S. debt, all without their fully being aware of it," said Kenji Nakanishi, a lawmaker in Your Party, a new opposition party that made significant gains in the last election. Nakanishi said that Japan shouldn't sell all its holdings at once, but should reduce them by about ¥10 trillion each year, and earmark some of that money for recovery spending in the Tohoku region, which was devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. A simple explanation to Washington that the move won't change the U.S.-Japan political and defense alliance should be enough, according to Nakanishi. It alarms him that the government is trying to raise taxes to fix its deficit and finance the earthquake recovery, a move he fears would further squeeze the economy. Views like Nakanishi's may be winning some acceptance. No one expects them to be acted upon immediately. The government and ruling party officials have repeatedly said Japan won't sell U.S. bonds, and instead will keep buying them. The common wisdom is that a weak dollar would prove devastating to the Japanese economy by making it more difficult for Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and other pillars of corporate Japan to sell their goods overseas. Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, a New York-based investment company, said the current accumulation of debt by the U.S. government is unsustainable. "The more money the world lends to America today, the more money they're going to have to lend tomorrow," he said in a telephone interview. "It's a giant Ponzi scheme. Nobody is ever going to get their money back." Japan would be venturing into untested territory if it decided to reduce Treasury holdings. In 1997, mere musing by then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto about selling Treasuries set off a Wall Street plunge until Japanese officials quickly jumped in for damage control and promised Tokyo had no such plans. But Naoto Amaki, a writer and former government bureaucrat, thinks the time is ripe to start thinking the unthinkable. Amaki has long advocated reducing Treasury holdings, but is only recently growing optimistic that others may finally see how his view may be good for Japan. Japan, with its towering public debt, is in no position to help finance America's deficit, especially after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, he said in a recent blog. "Japan's finances were already in serious trouble. Now, we are literally being backed into a crisis of no return," Amaki said.
16-Aug-2011 12:35 PM

[OTHERS] NO Standard & Poor's MORONS

NO Standard & Poor’s MORONS After going thru plenty of news & views, it seems that there are consensus that the United States' debt rating is still AAA despite Standard & Poor's downgrade. If at all there are doubts.. it would seems to point towards the downgrading of the market’s opinion on Standars & Poor’s and I AGREE 100%. Standard & Poor’s has a atrocious track record of incompetence in the housing bubble years, this was the same bunch of morons who gave Lehman Bros. AAA rating just before its collapse & and the accounting scandals of the stock bubble years. The decision by Standard & Poor's to downgrade U.S. government debt from AAA to AA reflects its own failings as a credit rating agency. The Treasury Department revealed that Standard &Poor's decision was initially based on a $2 trillion error in accounting. However, despite after this enormous error was corrected, Standard &Poor’s went ahead with the downgrade. This suggests that S&P had made the decision to downgrade independent of the evidence. It says nothing about the creditworthiness of the U.S. government. Since U.S. debt is payable in dollars & the U.S. government controls the printing of dollars, it is not clear what a downgrade could even mean. As long as the U.S. government knows how to print dollars, it will always be able to make the interest and principal payments on its debt, wouldn’t it ? With investors willing to hold trillions of dollars in long-term U.S. debt at interest rates well below 3.0%, the financial markets certainly do not seem to share Standard & Poor's concern. It is also noteworthy that interest rates fell in the wake of Standard & Poor's decision, providing further evidence that the markets do not take Standard & Poor's assessment seriously. This makes one wonder if there is something brewed prior to the announcement being made giving “certain people” a leg up on the outcome of the downgrade, those who tends to gain from such an announcement, say bond dealers, or gold dealers, perhaps ? Few trillion dollars wiped out of the market becoz of NO STANDARD & POOR’S MORONS !!
10-Aug-2011 12:36 PM

[OTHERS] problems with the site???

Am i the only one facing this "runtime/application error" !! multiple postings... getting tired of it....
28-Jun-2011 11:07 PM

[DIALOG] Dialog

have a read on my write-up, keep an eye on its TA and be a surfer, ride its wave and rest when seasons out. cheers.
21-Dec-2010 12:39 AM

[OTHERS] Why I say research houses & analyst's should be regulated by Bursa or SC !!

Today the Edge (www.theedgemalaysia.com) carried this news headlined : "Dialog dips in late morning, analysts mixed on outlook" 2 research house has differing views on this stock; AmResearch reaffirmed its BUY rating on Dialog Group with an unchanged fair value of RM1.40/share based on its sum-of-parts valuation. "We continue to like Dialog for its solid financials where tank business to underpin strong recurring income," it said. However CIMB Reseacrh was downbeat on Dialog which maintained its Underperform on the company and a target price of 95 sen."While we continue to like Dialog's defensive earnings and prudent management, it remains the priciest stock in our oil & gas universe," it said. I can live with the above statements.. BUT when CIMB Research makes statements like this.. and I quote.. "Investors should take profit and switch to our top oil & gas pick SapuraCrest Petroleum," this is where I get really pissed & riled !! OK, based on the statement, I sell my Dialog shares @ RM1.09 and with the proceeds I buy into SapuraCrest @ RM2.37. Now Dialog price shoots up to say RM1.20 and SapuraCrest price goes downhill to RM2.00 !! Now, can I claim my losses from CIMB Research ?? or The Edge ?? They made the statement publicly. If not, then they should just SHUT THE FCUK UP !!
20-Aug-2010 1:30 PM


Any comments on its TP after its announcement of its proposed bonus issue (1 for 3) + warrant rights issue (5 for 1 after bonus) ? Chuan Huat is up 17sen @ 73sen after announcement. NTA is RM1.03 and based on its Q1 results, annualised EPS is RM0.12sen. Dividend declared @ 3.5sen. @ RM0.73, PE=6X with a 4.8%DY. Chuan Huat Resources is principally engaged in trading in hardware & building materials and manufacturing & trading of IT related products.
28-Jul-2010 12:06 PM

[OTHERS] DOW to drop 1000 points ?

yup.. sure looks that way !! on July 12 to be exact.... some yahoo tech wiz must have been laid by a super sexy blonde and ended up with a loose screw in the head !! or can it be ???
6-Jul-2010 11:32 AM

[MBL] MBL - Muar Ban Lee

ha..ha.. ??? what's so funny here ? instead of cynical remarks, perhaps a more constructive comment would have been appreciated..especially coming from someone who cliams to be extensively experienced in TA & FA ! first of all, i'm NOT a promoter of MBL.. neither am I a substantial shareholder. I have bought MBL shares based on my analysis and monitoring of the stock. I believe the stock has potential and is currently under-valued. If you taken the trouble to understand its biz, you'd notice that they are NOT a trading company but a design & manufacturing company. Hence, when it comes to design & set-up of plants, which vary in time/length of contract term, the receivables & inventories will be in tandem with the time..ie. a longer period of receivables/inventories turnover. The receivables and inventory turnover ratio is approximately 4-5 months, seemingly high BUT its normal for such a company ! If you were one of their customer, would you make immediate payment whilst contract in progress or delay a bit until you are comfortable that the plant being constructed is going to be in working condition. The contracts are short term contracts where payments would have been structered in such a way to cater for such a situation hence, and in normal short term contracts, recognition of revenue would be at the completion of the contract ie. tail-end and payments on receivables will be after that. It would aslo depend on the timing of the recognition of the said contract, ie. if it is recognised just before financial year-end, receivables will be outstanding showing a high turnover ratio. Similar situation will be noted on its inventories. The inventories comprises of raw material/spare-parts and WIP. The high inventories is in tandem with the higher turnover. Higher level of spareparts to maintain customers orders due to higher plant set-ups and the higher inventories turnover is mainly due to plant anchillary machinery production and oil seed expellers based on orders received as per contract awaiting delivery as scheduled. Most of their plant and machineries sold involves gear-boxes, and importation of these gear-boxes have certain lead-time for delivery which also contributes to the higher inventory turnover ratio. To me, the stock & receivable turnover ratio is within acceptable level. Like I said, I have been monitoring this stock for some-time now and I pretty much like the industry they are in or rather the industry they are catering for.
7-May-2010 12:52 PM

[MBL] MBL - Muar Ban Lee

MBL is principally involved in the design & manufacture of oil-seed expellers and ancillary machinery for oil-seed crushing plants, plant set-up, sales & services and manufacture and sale of spare parts. MBL's products & services are mainly to customers from various sub-sectors of the palm oil industries. FYE 31.12.2009 Revenue dropped a marginal 3.8% to RM39.7mil compared to RM41.3mil in the previous year; PBT/PAT for the year was RM8.8mil/RM8. 6mil compared to RM9.8mil/8.0mil in the previous year. EPS increased to 9.3sen compared to 8.7sen previously with its NTA improved to RM0.59sen compared to RM0.54sen previously. Noted that MBL is debt-free and 40% of its NTA is represented by cash of RM0.23sen. Projected FYE 31.12.2010 With increased global demand for edible oil, oleo-chemical product & bio-diesel, it is driving the majority of the world's tropical and sub-tropical countries to expand acreage of palm oil plantation. This in turn creates vast & unlimited opportunity for MBL biz to grow. MBL's future plans & biz strategy to maintain its competitive edge & strength in the industry includes: · Further penetration into Indonesia, Nigeria & Papua New Guinea · Expansion into markets in Central & South America · Production capacity expansion · Continuous product development & investment in R&D · Diversification of product range (eg. Jatropha Oil Seed Expeller) With increased production capacity, MBL projected a 14% growth in revenue for FYE 2010. With improved production & efficiency in costs controls, on the basis that the same PAT margin is maintained, it would result into a PAT of RM9.8mil ie. An EPS of 10.65sen. I am assuming an annual 5sen dividend (2sen higher than previous year), NTA would improve to RM0.63sen. I was monitoring this stock ever since its public issue in Oct 2009 was over-subcribed by 35X. Its IPO was prices @ RM0.65sen and reached a high of RM0.81sen on listing. Thereafter, it slid down and traded rangebound RM0.56sen to RM0.60sen. At current RM0.60sen share price, based on its projected FYE 31.12.2010 as above, that works out to be a PE of 5.6X and DY of 8.3% with an NTA of RM0.64sen ! At "projected" RM1.00 share price, PE works out to be only 9.4X and DY of 5.00%... still looks good ! I am eargerly awaiting their 1Q results !
3-May-2010 5:04 PM
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